decoration decoration
Stories

GROKLAW
When you want to know more...
decoration
For layout only
Home
Archives
Site Map
Search
About Groklaw
Awards
Legal Research
Timelines
ApplevSamsung
ApplevSamsung p.2
ArchiveExplorer
Autozone
Bilski
Cases
Cast: Lawyers
Comes v. MS
Contracts/Documents
Courts
DRM
Gordon v MS
GPL
Grokdoc
HTML How To
IPI v RH
IV v. Google
Legal Docs
Lodsys
MS Litigations
MSvB&N
News Picks
Novell v. MS
Novell-MS Deal
ODF/OOXML
OOXML Appeals
OraclevGoogle
Patents
ProjectMonterey
Psystar
Quote Database
Red Hat v SCO
Salus Book
SCEA v Hotz
SCO Appeals
SCO Bankruptcy
SCO Financials
SCO Overview
SCO v IBM
SCO v Novell
SCO:Soup2Nuts
SCOsource
Sean Daly
Software Patents
Switch to Linux
Transcripts
Unix Books

Gear

Groklaw Gear

Click here to send an email to the editor of this weblog.


You won't find me on Facebook


Donate

Donate Paypal


No Legal Advice

The information on Groklaw is not intended to constitute legal advice. While Mark is a lawyer and he has asked other lawyers and law students to contribute articles, all of these articles are offered to help educate, not to provide specific legal advice. They are not your lawyers.

Here's Groklaw's comments policy.


What's New

STORIES
No new stories

COMMENTS last 48 hrs
No new comments


Sponsors

Hosting:
hosted by ibiblio

On servers donated to ibiblio by AMD.

Webmaster
Nokia downgraded to 'junk' | 396 comments | Create New Account
Comments belong to whoever posts them. Please notify us of inappropriate comments.
Nokia downgraded to 'junk' MS in danger
Authored by: Winter on Wednesday, April 25 2012 @ 06:33 AM EDT
Contrary to you, I think Nokia will drag MS with them.

At the moment, there have been sold some 250 million Android phones (could be
300 million) and half that number of iPhones. Nokia is currently the only
serious WinPhone outlet.

If Nokia crashes, consumers and networks will view WinPhone as a liability.
Producers and their investors will have learned that betting on WinPhone kills
swiftly (they can see that in the Nokia share prices).

On the other hand, selling Android gives you access to a market of 300 million
clients. A billion next year. Easy to reach, and resellers, networks, and
manufacturers know what you are delivering.

Sounds like an easy choice to me.

---
Some say the sun rises in the east, some say it rises in the west; the truth
lies probably somewhere in between.

[ Reply to This | Parent | # ]

Nokia downgraded to 'junk'
Authored by: Gringo_ on Wednesday, April 25 2012 @ 08:06 AM EDT

This is certainly a complex situation to analyze.

In the first place, I don't think there is going to be any rush to buy W8 tablets and W8 phones. Sales of W8 phones will be much like sales for W7 phones - marginal at best.

The tablets will be worse, but Microsoft will soldier on with them. They will get heavily discounted and sold at Wall Mart. Maybe you'll get one with your Happy Meal at McDonald's.

Nokia will not have any success selling tablets. They are not a tablet maker, and they are starting from zero. Their current customer base, the carriers, will not be interested, and Nokia will have to develop the market. Nokia will downsize to a shadow of its former self, and perhaps survive that way selling W8 phones, heavily subsidized by Microsoft. I don't think Microsoft has any interest in buying Nokia, as has been well discussed here, but in the end they may have no choice to prevent Nokia from going under.

Now we talk about the W8 desktop, and that is a different story that has nothing to do with Nokia. The W8 desktop will not be any different than any other OS launch for Microsoft. ie: there will be no rush to go out and buy it, but at some point all new PCs will have that installed by the OEMs and you will have no choice if you need a need computer and you always buy Microsoft. So - it is guaranteed sales at some level - at least in the consumer realm. However, consumers are abandoning desktops in droves. This trend will only accelerate with the W8 desktop.

Businesses, however, will bulk at it. In the first place, they traditionally wait a few years at least before upgrading. With the W8 desktop, there is going to be more foot dragging than ever before. The W8 desktop is just not a platform one would want for serious work. A business doesn't want that Metro screen between them and their account apps or compiler or whatever it is they need to do. In the end, Microsoft may have to come out with a version that puts a real desktop forward and relegates Metro to the side, out of sight.

Several years down the road, when most of the consumers that want Microsoft desktops will have W8 desktops, and businesses will have reluctantly begun to buy them, Microsoft's sales will have shrunk in half, but they will have easily survived. Now here is where dynamic changes, because we begin to run into network effects. At this point, we will begin to see W8 phones, tablets, and desktop forming a viable ecosystem, each component stimulating sales of the other components. Microsoft will be smaller, but will have finally made it to the other side.

However, all the while the competition won't be standing still. As I said, W8 tablets will not take off, and W8 phones will continue to be marginal until we get to the point discussed in the paragraph above, so what will consumers be buying? Of course they will be buying all manner of innovative devices from a wide variety of innovative manufacturers, and anything can happen to disrupt that scenario in the paragraph above. Then, in the end, the long term is very hard to predict.

[ Reply to This | Parent | # ]

Groklaw © Copyright 2003-2013 Pamela Jones.
All trademarks and copyrights on this page are owned by their respective owners.
Comments are owned by the individual posters.

PJ's articles are licensed under a Creative Commons License. ( Details )